If you look at the electoral map you can see something interesting.
Well, it's not that interesting, but it should be to Democrats. The South, the Border States and most of the Midwest went to Bush. The Kerry campaign pretty much ignored the South, putting all its eggs in the Florida basket. The Dems ignored growing states like North Carolina and Georgia, both with 15 electoral votes each. That makes a difference.
During the primaries, Howard Dean stated that his campaign would reach out to guys with "Confederate Flags on their pickup trucks." Many Democrats howled when he said that. They thought that he was pandering to racists and that they should be ignored. What they didn't see is that these people are the blue collar folks that are most affected by the economy. They needed to reach these persons, but they really didn't.
Nicholas Kristof hits the nail on the head that Democrats need to stopping being such a yuppified party that seems arrogant and ignorant to what was once it's base. There was a time that the Democrats were a of the working man. Now, it seems to be a party of coalitions: such as gays, Blacks and feminists and so on.
I'm not saying that the party has to ignore these other concerns. However, they have ignored the concerns of working class whites and they have in turn gone to the GOP, even though the GOP works against their economic interests.
I've noticed how many of my liberal friends tend to look down on working class folk, thinking of them as idiots and racists. And then they wonder why they lose.
Bill Clinton had a winning electoral strategy. Look at the 1992 electoral map. He won all the Border States: West Virginia, Kentucky and Missouri. He also won four states in the Old Confederacy: Tennesee, Georgia, Arkansas and Louisiana. That's 64 electoral votes. He connected with the white working class and also was pro-gay and loved by African Americans. Kerry pulled out of Missouri, and incredibly big mistake.
So Dems need to think long and hard about what Dean said. That and they need to make some trips to Harlem and sit down with Clinton.
Correction: Charlie Mehler corrected me in saying that Clinton appeared to be pro-gay. Remember, he signed DOMA.
Posted by Dennis at November 3, 2004 10:24 AMThat was a good post, thank you!
Posted by: Mike Knous at November 23, 2004 09:39 AMDean wouldnt have brought out the young vote any better than Kerry. Its not that the college kids werent energized. They just have other priorities.
Internet voting would likely solve this, although I really dont want it solved.
Dean wouldnt have won this election. He made so much of a fool of himself that his own party bailed on him. How many republicans would he have gotten to cross over.
Dont forget that the war in Iraq had popular support until the presidential campaign began. The anti-war fervor is almost exclusively caused by campaign propaganda. Dean would have continued to look like a nut job to most people.
Posted by: mike at November 6, 2004 07:59 AMWhy is "diversity" just a code word for minority
I'm not sure it is Michael - what makes you think so?
In any case, the "majority" white Americans will be a minority before the current generation is dead - and we will be a nation of "minorities" with no "majority" - so perhaps that line of discussion is not profitable to mine.
Posted by: dorsano at November 5, 2004 11:34 PMI too was angry when Bill Clinton the "pro-gay" prez betrayed us with "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" and DOMA.
Then last year it occurred to me that Clinton deserves lots of credit for legitimizing gay rights to mainstream Americans (and I would argue to the gay community itself). He invited us to a seat at the "table"... no longer a political movement having to shout from the back of the room. Maybe we didn't wield the leverage and power we wanted, but neither does most first year congressmen or Senators.
It sounds silly, but with Clinton was the first inaugural ball especially for gays and lesbians, the Triangle Ball. Heck, Melissa Etheridge came out at that Ball. I lived in DC at the time and although, I didn't go to the Triangle Ball, but it was significant.
Lots have moved forward since 1992. Certainly, not all due to Clinton, but I think he does deserve some credit for helping.
Posted by: R Taylor at November 5, 2004 11:23 PMOf course Dean was right. The irony is, it appeared people passed him up because he wasn't as "electable."
Posted by: Socrateased at November 4, 2004 07:27 PMIt always amazes me after each election that the losing side continues to assume that the voters who supported the other candidate must be idiots, zombies or slaves to media. Why is it so hard to believe that intelligent people can look at the same information and draw a different conclusion?
One of the greatest weaknesses of the Democrats today is their smug sense of superiority. Why is "diversity" just a code word for minority? Diversity means a wide range of opinions and peoples. This is a big country and, yes, guys who drive pickup trucks are part of the country too.
Posted by: Michael Kelly at November 4, 2004 10:03 AMThe pundits are stating 'moral issues' affected the race. Most believe this is the gay marriage referenda on 11 states, particularly in Ohio and Michigan.
Also I am not so sure how the Afro-American coalition was tied to Kerry. The pro-gun lobby was not moved by his latest hunting event (why didn't he carry his quarry back?).
Kerry's Iraq policy was snatched up earlier by Bush so he didn't have a difference from the Bush.
Posted by: EG at November 3, 2004 12:17 PMThe south was repeatedly bombarded by things like, if you vote for Kerry, he'll make your kids all faggots. All the blacks, brownies and jews are voting for him, do you want them in your communities? Stupid things like that alot of these people apparently fear along with the fake over-terrorism threat.
The Howard Dean was right hits it perfectly. Kerry made the mistake of not hanging out in the south, I guess he figured Fahrenheit 9/11 did its job out there. But this is the area of the working class white guys, who truly will be affected by Bush more than anyone. Its where the kids of the poor whites get sent to Iraq along with urban minorities first.
And the scary part is around 46% of the popular vote was suburban, and about 30% was urban ,along with the rest being mostly rural. All these new communities that have propped up everywhere, you know the cookie-cutter kaufman & broads (suburban sprawl), this is what helped Bush too. These people usually work a little far from home, so they commute alot and dont have much time to really think about whats going on, so what do they do. Yes, you got it, TV. And we know how that leans in corporate interest and pro-Bush propaganda. Initially it helps them make their decision.
We also had the young vote, who this time were not mostly urban kids, but kids from these largely expanding suburban sprawl communities... so that and add gay marriage/abortion to the mix and wallah, boost for Bush.
Posted by: DGCopper at November 3, 2004 12:12 PMWhat is amazing about this is that Bush didn't really appeal to a broad base or coalition either: if you look at his campaign it was all mostly fear-mongering (I got flyers even on Election Day suggesting how a Kerry presidency would be affected by dirty bombs). If he appealed to anything it was religious groups.
I am going to be thinking out how the next four years will look. Not good, not for moderates...
Dennis:
Only one correction: Let's say that Bill Clinton was "perceived" as pro-gay. I find it difficult to call someone pro-gay under whose watch we saw the advent of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" and DOMA.
-- Charlie Mehler
Posted by: Charlie Mehler at November 3, 2004 10:44 AM