There are two interesting pieces about the GOP triumph two weeks ago and how it might not be the resounding victory it appears to be. The first comes from Jonathan Rauch who believes that the GOP is treading on thin ice because it's misintepreting it's wins as proof that the country has turned rightward instead of seeing that it shows that the party, and not the nation is the one taking a sharp right turn. He notes that Bush should have easily won this election. He was an incumbent running against a Northeastern liberal who couldn't find himself. And yet he won only be three perentage points. Here is the money quote:
" If anything structurally important happened in 2004, it was that the country moved to the right a little, but the Republican Party moved to the right a lot. John Kerry's Democrats aimed for the center and nearly got there, whereas Bush pulled right. He won, of course, but in doing so he painted his party a brighter shade of red—especially on Capitol Hill, and above all in the Senate, some of whose new Republican members seem nothing short of extreme.
The upshot is that Washington's governing establishment has moved further to the right of the country, and of the world, that Washington seeks to lead. A 50-50 country has produced a lopsided government and a sore temptation for Republicans to overreach. If they steer hard to starboard, they may capsize the boat. "
I think the GOP really does think that they have the public with them. This is why they are thinking about radically altering Social Security and the Income Tax. It will be interesting to see how the public reaction to such ideas. I don't know if I can predict a coming capsize, but when a political party moves to far to the extreme it tends to get spanked in the polls. It's just a matter of when.
For another opinion, read Ron Brownstein's column in the Los Angeles Times.
Posted by Dennis at November 15, 2004 11:22 PMI dont think the administration or the party is moving right. I dont see how Kerry or the democrats could possibly be called cemtrists.
What exactly is a move to the right that you can point to during this election by the republicans? How did Bush change at all from 4 years earlier?
I think the democrats and the press have given far too much credit to the relisious for giving him the large majority (spin it all you want) but there were other blocks of voters, just as large, involved.
One block, of which I am part, strongly supports the troops, commander in chief and goals of the war in iraq. I know that many people bought the Kerry spin about the war and are a bit miffed because they believe Bush lied to them but the goals of the war are admirable and necessary.
I have yet to see this block of voters mentioned. Everything has been anti-gay this or anti-abortion that.
Posted by: mike at November 17, 2004 07:27 AMNow I am a Democrat and I hope you won't mind me weighing in on this discussion for a minute. I can understand your inclination to leave your party, but I wish you moderate Republicans wouldn't.
Us Democrats need some sane Republicans we can work with as we fight as a team to bring America back to the center. As it is, the valuable pool of moderate Republicans is shrinking badly. Who will we work with as we Democrats seek to join arms across the aisle - those right wing crazies who are quickly leading this nation off a cliff?
Moderate Republicans and Democrats have already joined arms and worked hard to unseat Bush in this election - yes, things didn't turn out as we'd hoped but the momentum is on our side!
There is now a strong grassroots movement assembled that is still very much energized! Moderate republicans and Democrats must only now re-organize a bit and keep stepping. Bush won by a very small margin which leaves no room for mistakes on his part. And we all know he's going to continue to arrogantly make them!
Please stay and fight, for we need allies in the Republican party! When I first heard Arlen Spector take his stand last week, my heart leapt with joy and now this week I see him grovelling. It will be interesting to see what kind of Republican he will end up being. He is of more use to the country with a backbone though. And, let me say, I hope to see Democrats in Congress reacquaint themselves with their backbones, too.
The fight ahead is going to be tough for all of us reasonable Americans - moderate Republicans and Democrats alike. But we must succeed.